Iran Ceasefire Has Broken Down

It was destined to fail from the start…

By: Austin Abbring

July 8, 2026

It did not even take a month for the MoU to break down. Iran has resumed its attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States has responded with missile attacks of our own, as well as revoking Iran’s oil license. This will obviously raise oil prices once again. In fact, oil prices are estimated to have already jumped by at least 3%. Iran has claimed that it has fired on ships in the SoH again primarily due to Israel violating the framework of the peace terms the U.S. and Iran had agreed to. Israel has continued its occupation and military strikes against Hezbollah and civilians in Lebanon. Netanyahu was extremely apoplectic over the ceasefire deal. As I have written before, Netanyahu finally got his war with Iran that he has been pleading for with U.S. presidents for four decades now. Donald Trump was dull enough to finally appease the Israeli Prime Minister. Netanyahu was not going to give this up easily. Now here we are, essentially back to square one. Which the current square one is actually negative squares, as we have further destabilized and further complicated our relations with countries in the Middle East and are in a far worse position than we were before.

We could all see this coming. As I have laid out, Israel was never going to comply with the MoU. It essentially functioned as temporary relief for global energy, oil, and gas prices. We did not solve anything and were not going to solve anything with the ceasefire agreement, which was a complete and embarrassing capitulation on the part of the United States. We achieved no objectives, and every single aspect of this war was an abject failure. All we have done is enriched Iran, entrenched the Iranian regime, killed thousands of innocent civilians, destroyed civilian infrastructure, made free open waters controlled and most likely taxed by Iran, and finally driven Iran even closer to actually pursuing a nuclear weapon. 

All Iran has learned is that they need leverage. How many more times is the United States and Israel going to impinge on their sovereignty and threaten them with nuclear weapons or extreme destruction? How many more times is the United States going to betray Iran? We overthrew their democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammed Mosaddegh, in 1953. We had decades of contentious relations following that, to put it lightly. We have continued to sanction them for decades. In fact, following 9/11, Iran attempted to reinstate its diplomatic ties with the U.S., and the Bush administration refused. We finally reached a nuclear proliferation deal with the JCPOA under the Obama administration, which Donald Trump unilaterally removed us from three years later. Had Joe Biden successfully renegotiated a similar deal, Trump almost assuredly would have removed us from it (again) and started the war we are currently in. If you are Iran, what are you going to do given that history? Not that I am advocating for this, but they should develop a nuclear weapon. It is in their best interest, as Israel and the United States clearly have shown their allergy to peace in the region and their inability to remove themselves from expansionism and policing the globe. 

I would also like to display the erratic behavior by our President on the world stage. Initially, after the MoU was signed, Donald Trump called it “a historic breakthrough and that we achieved everything we set out to accomplish and much more”. An obvious obfuscation of the truth. Today, he declared the MoU is over, Iran is “scum and liars”, and he rebuked our allies for not helping us. Again. I would like to paint a brief illustration here: Let’s say you watch me get in my car and intentionally drive it nose-first into a tree, completely totaling it. I then get out of my car and ask you to drop what you are doing and invest time, energy, resources, and money into helping me. I want you to help buff out the fenders, rebuild my engine, reinstall the headlights, reset my axles, et cetera. I demand that you pay for half of it, and along the way, I am going to berate you constantly. As you ponder your decision to help me, do you feel inclined to do so given the objectives? Abso-fucking-lutely not. I deliberately added the detail that I drove into the tree head-first intentionally. It was absolutely an avoidable situation, just like President Trump’s decision to launch this illegal and unjustified war. Isn’t it wonderful having a bumbling, demented, racist commander in chief who says he is “bored” with this situation?