A Review of the JCPOA & the Iran War

Iran’s compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal should never be overstated

By: Austin Abbring

June 3, 2026

What better time to do a review of the JCPOA and the illegal war in Iran initiated by Donald Trump following the House War Powers Resolution than now? I have been planning on venting my frustrations for a while over the Iran nuclear weapons program talking point. Let’s get into it!

Following a 215-208 vote in the House, this resolution now forces Donald Trump’s hand in Iran. He must refrain from any further hostilities with Iran unless Congress votes to officially declare war or gives authorization to use military force in the region. While we are not officially clear yet and the Senate still needs to vote, this resolution puts the President and Congress in a difficult position. Officially declaring war while this engagement is crippling our economy, the global economy, and has maybe a low 30% approval rating amongst Americans would be a catastrophic decision for the Republican Party. Four Republicans joined Democrats on this measure: Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Tom Barrett of Michigan, Warren Davidson of Ohio, and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. 

The JCPOA

Before I get into what I think is on the horizon, I want to discuss the JCPOA again. I think the joint nuclear deal under the Obama administration was one of the greatest pieces of foreign diplomacy in this century by an American president. It is certainly one of the high points of the two Obama administrations. Without a single shot fired or a loss of a single life, Iran agreed with the U.S., United Kingdom, Russia, China, France, and Germany as the P5+1 to cap their enriched uranium levels at 3.67%. This is enough for civilian energy sector usage only. In exchange, they had assets unfrozen and sanctions lifted. Fair enough of a deal. As I am sure you are aware, a nuclear weapons program requires 90% enriched uranium to even begin thinking of developing a bomb. Iran agreed to allow independent inspections by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to ensure it was complying with the 3.67% cap on its uranium enrichment.

The frozen assets being made available to Iran as part of the deal are where Republicans love to criticize the JCPOA. Just to be clear, the U.S. government did not “give” money directly to Iran. These assets were Iran’s to begin with and were frozen in accounts. Iran was able to regain access to around $50 billion, again of their own money. Our government made a separate $1.7 billion settlement over a previous military equipment dispute from the 70’s. For reference, since this war started, Iran has been generating around $140 million in profit daily and $4.9 billion in profit monthly from ship tolls and global oil prices massively surging. For those keeping score at home, Iran is profiting more from Trump’s war than it ever did under the Obama administration. If Iran wins this war, which I find to be highly likely, it will ostensibly maintain control over the Strait and continue to profit and surpass that $50 billion Republicans love to cry about. Had Donald Trump not unilaterally withdrawn us from the JCPOA, none of this would be a concern.

False Pretenses 

I want to make it as clear as possible: we are only engaged in this war because Donald Trump removed us from one of the greatest nuclear deals in our country’s history. Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapons program, nor was it violating the JCPOA terms. Iran abandoned developing a nuclear weapon in the early 2000’s, with the halting of the Amad Project. Our own Pentagon confirms Iran has no such weapons program. Our own (now former) Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who testified under oath in front of Congress, concurs with the Pentagon: Iran is not developing, nor is it weeks away from developing a nuclear bomb. The IAEA, which conducted over 1,000 independent inspections between 2016 and 2018, has not had a single inspection in which Iran was found to be violating the 3.67% enriched uranium cap. So, who is lying? Donald Trump, his Cabinet, and Pete Hegseth, or is the Pentagon, Tulsi Gabbard, all of our intelligence since the early 2000’s, and the entire international nuclear community?

Following Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement, yes, Iran had begun to increase their enriched uranium to around 60% prior to our illegal attacks. Why would they not, since there was no longer a non-nuclear proliferation deal in place? Additionally, Iran still had to get to the 90% enriched uranium, as well as develop the weapons capability to deliver such a warhead. This was not happening any time soon. Also, why on Earth would Iran develop a nuclear bomb, and then immediately use it? That would lead to essentially the end of their entire civilization with the response the United States, Israel, and the U.N. would have in retaliation. All Iran would use a nuclear weapon for is to act as a deterrent to maintain their sovereignty, as any state would do. 

Also, a quick follow-up to the frequent “number one state sponsor of terror” Iran is denounced as: Hezbollah has not attacked a U.S. base or military personnel since the 1990’s, and Iranian-backed proxies have never carried out a terror attack on U.S. soil. Just for reference, one of our allies, Saudi Arabia, has. Can you really blame Iranian-backed proxies for attacking U.S. bases in the Middle East? It is unusual for other countries to have military installations around the world the way we do. As a matter of fact, we account for around three-quarters of foreign military installations globally. If we want to blame anybody for any destabilization in the Middle East or around the world, we must blame our government, the military-industrial complex, and our global surveillance as part of that military presence. 

Where are we headed?

Now, I am not in favor of any country developing a nuclear weapon, but I think Iran would be foolish not to pursue the construction of one at this point. Why would they not? During Donald Trump’s first administration, we betrayed them on our own created agreement. Iran upheld its end of the deal; we did not. We have not “messed with”, so to speak, North Korea ever since they developed a nuclear bomb. I would wager we, and Israel, would be less inclined to accelerate tensions with Iran if they developed a weapon of mass destruction.

Speaking of Israel, there is only one nation in the Middle East that has nuclear weapons and has threatened to use them on multiple occasions, and that is Israel. In fact, Israel is one of four nations that are not signatories to the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Which, if you are not aware, is an international agreement that is designed to prevent the spread of nuclear arms, promotes the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and advocates for nuclear disarmament amongst nations. 

Now Iran is not going to pursue and develop a nuclear weapons program in the next year or two, regardless of how this war concludes. I believe Trump will have to pull out of this conflict with his tail between his legs. He will try to claim victory and other nonsense on social media and with the press, but we are going to come out on the losing end of this, rightfully so. Iran just has to continue what they are doing: wait this out. If they can maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz long enough for our midterms to get here, they will win this engagement. We are not going to topple one of the oldest civilizations on Earth with drone strikes. It will require a massive ground invasion. Our blockade of a blockade, our tens of billions of dollars wasted, our no clear objectives, our lack of political concessions from Iran, and our loss of servicemen and women are already immensely unpopular. A ground invasion would be even more cataclysmic in the polls. Iranian officials are well aware of this. 

In the end, Iran will gain control over waters that were already open and free, and I think, at best, we end up with another JCPOA-type deal. I do not think Iran will engage in that, however. They will gain more wealth from tolling ships going through the Strait. This means our gas and oil prices are most likely forever impacted. Gas and oil prices may come down from wartime levels, yes, but structurally they will forever be higher than pre-conflict levels. I also think Iran will ultimately develop a nuclear weapons program and missile delivery system. Slowly, over the course of the next few years. Again, I think they should at this point. 

Our country has betrayed them countless times, and Israel will become a paper tiger to the Iranians should they develop a weapon that would act as a deterrent. If you ever wonder why Iran chants “death to America”, look no further than 1953. Many people on the right like to start their basis for Iran-American tensions with the revolution in 1979. They conveniently ignore the fact that our CIA, alongside British intelligence operatives, overthrew the democratically elected Prime Minister of Iran, Mohammad Mossadeq, in 1953. Following our coup, the Iranian people were subjected to a brutal dictatorship under the Shah for over twenty years. What a fucking mess we are in. Do you remember Trump’s 2024 campaign slogan: “A vote for Kamala is a vote for your son in Iran”? How did that play out? It looks like every accusation is a confession.